Tuesday Rockpile: Yes, Ezequiel Tovar should be an All-Star (2024)

The 2024 All-Star Game is little over a month away — and in case you haven’t voted yet, you can do that here.

Yesterday, MLB released the first ballot update. Here’s how the Colorado Rockies stand so far:

C Elias Díaz — 8th
3B Ryan McMahon — 5th
SS Ezequiel Tovar — 10th

I’ve written before about why Brenton Doyle should absolutely be under consideration, and here’s the data on Ryan McMahon. But it’s worth taking a moment to consider the case for Ezequiel Tovar because he’s putting together a remarkable sophom*ore season — and, apparently, most of baseball hasn’t noticed.

After all, it’s the Rockies, and Tovar is just 22, so really, what is there to see, even though Tovar was a Gold Glove finalist as a rookie?

As it turns out, there’s quite a lot.

Let’s start with the numbers, and go from there.

Okay, then, how are Tovar’s 2024 stats?

The top shortstops as ranked by All-Star voters are as follows:

Mookie Betts
Trea Turner
Elly De La Cruz
Orlando Arcia
Willy Adames
Ha-Seong Kim
Francisco Lindor
Masyn Winn
Dansby Swanson
Ezequiel Tovar

Here’s how FanGraphs ranks those players. (All stats are from FanGraphs and are current as of Monday morning.)

Tuesday Rockpile: Yes, Ezequiel Tovar should be an All-Star (1)

All of this becomes more complicated in light of the hand injury Mookie Betts suffered on Sunday. There’s no doubt that he should be the starting NL shortstop with Elly De La Cruz and Willy Adames also having strong seasons. Trea Turner has appeared in only 33 games due to a left hamstring injury, which makes his high placement on voters’ ballots a curious choice. Orlando Arcia and Dansby Swanson have below-replacement-level hitting scores.

Voters, what are we doing here?

Consider the case Tovar is making for himself.

By fWAR, he’s the fifth most-valuable shortstop — and the 22nd best player in MLB. In terms of home runs (11), he ranks second among shortstops; his SLG (.491) is the highest of all NL shortstops (20th for all MLB players); his Def (8.0) is exceeded only by that of Willy Adames (fifth-best for all MLB players).

Let’s look to more traditional metrics. Tovar’s 85 hits are fifth most in MLB; his 50 singles rank 17th in MLB; and his 22 doubles tie him for second most with Aaron Judge.

Ezequiel Tovar is for real.

The defense is still good, right?

Is this a serious question?

Yes. It remains elite. The 2023 Gold Glove finalist has not sacrificed that part of his game in 2024.

Again, here’s what FanGraphs shows for NL shortstops:

Tuesday Rockpile: Yes, Ezequiel Tovar should be an All-Star (2)

His Def is second only to that of Willy Adames. Tovar is tied with Orlando Arcia and Masyn Wynn for the most DRS (6), and his eight OAA tie him for first with Willy Adames.

Still not impressed? Try this. Tovar’s UZR — 5.1 — leads all NL shortstops by a lot. Second highest? That would be Francisco Lindor with 1.8.

He’s committed only three errors in 300 opportunities (across 618.0 innings), which tie him for fewest with Orlando Arcia.

Now compare Tovar’s defensive numbers against all other MLB players. His six DRS tie him for fourth (with, in fairness, many players). His UZR is second only to Gunnar Henderson (5.5). Tovar’s OAA ties him for fourth; his FRV puts him in a tie for second (with teammate Brenton Doyle). And his Def is the fifth highest in all of baseball.

I don’t know how else to put it: Ezequiel Tovar is for real, and he’s earned being an All-Star in 2024.

The honor is not lost on Tovar, who looks to last year’s All-Star Game MVP, Elias Díaz, as a model.

“Obviously, the dream is to play there, to play one of those games,” Tovar said with bullpen catcher Aaron Muñoz interpreting.

“Diaz went through it last year — we talked a little bit about it. He always says hitting that home run in the All-Star Game was probably the coolest thing he’s ever done. And, hopefully, God willing, I can get that opportunity.”

Mock draft news

Yesterday, Baseball America released their Mock Draft 4.0, which has the Rockies selecting RHP Chase Burns. As Carlos Collazo explains:

The Rockies have been linked to arms more than most teams inside the top five for the majority of the spring. In this scenario they have their pick of the class, but I’m not sure how they view those arms compared to Condon or Bazzana if they make it this far. Bazzana is still on the board here, but I’ll stick with an arm they have been heavily tied to this spring in Chase Burns, who has some of the most high-octane pure stuff in the class.
Last year’s first-round pick, Chase Dollander, has pitched well so far in 2024 at High-A and is looking like a savvy pick. Burns’ arm talent is simply more difficult for a team like the Rockies to acquire outside of the draft. For the same reasons, Arkansas lefthander Hagen Smith also makes plenty of sense and it’s hard to discount Florida’s Jac Caglianone as well.

There will surely be more news after this week’s Draft Combine.

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